Brazil Expects Foreign Investments to Fall US$ 10 Billion in 2009

Dollar and euro Brazil's estimated trade surplus (positive balance of exports less imports) for 2008 has been revised from US$ 23.78 billion down to US$ 23.6 billion. For 2009, the projection has risen from US$ 13.32 billion to US$ 13.71 billion.

Analysts have maintained their projection of a US$ 30 billion current account deficit (all transactions between Brazil and foreign countries) for 2008, and revised it from US$ 31.65 billion to US$ 30.03 billion for next year.

The projection concerning foreign direct investment (capital that enters the productive sector of the economy, generating employment and income) was maintained at US$ 35 billion, for 2008, and US$ 25 billion for 2009.

As for the basic interest rate (Selic), estimates were maintained for both the end of 2008 (13.75%) and 2009 (13.31%). The last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), which sets the Selic, will be held in December, so analysts are not expecting any further increases in the basic interest rate.

Concerning the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), analysts have adjusted the projection for this year from 5.23% to 5.24% and maintained the rate at 3% for 2009. The expected growth of industrial projection this year has been reduced from 5.80% down to 5.78%. In 2009, analysts expect a 3% increase, as against 3.16% in the previous estimate.

For this year, analysts' are projecting that the Brazilian net public debt should be equivalent to 39% of the GDP, as against a previous estimate of 39.04%. The estimate for 2009 has been maintained at 38%. The lowest the debt-to-GDP ratio, the greater the confidence of investors in the country's ability to meet its obligations.

The figures were disclosed in the Focus bulletin, a publication based on weekly surveys conducted by the Central Bank among market analysts concerning the main economic indicators.

ABr

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