Brazil’s Export Boom Turning to Bust, Warns Industry Federation

Brazil’s main manufacturing organization warned that in the coming three years the country’s strong export thrust – 20% annual growths since 2003 – will begin to rapidly exhaust.

"Exports are an important source of growth for industry, manufacturing and farming but that source is running out," said he Sao Paulo State Federation of Industries, Fiesp during an open forum on Brazilian exports prospects.

Paulo Francini, head of Fiesp’s Economic Research and Studies Office said that the export boom end could happen in the "short term, if by short term we are referring to a period of one to three years."

Exports benefited from an increase in international prices that is "closely linked to favorable temporary conditions such as the world’s economy expansion – which is cyclical –  and commodities prices," he said.

"The loss of exports dynamism will have a strong impact on employment since the majority of sectors with difficulties in sustaining overseas sales are labor intensive," pointed out Francini.

Since 2003, Brazil’s overseas sales expanded at an annual rate above 20%, while world exports only did at 10%.

However given the strong appreciation of the Brazilian currency, real, in 2006, export growth will be closer to that of world sales: 13% and 8.8%, highlighting that since 2003, the US dollar in Brazil has experienced "an accumulated depreciation of 30%".

The Brazilian government forecasts exports of US$ 132 billion this year (11% over 2005) and imports of US$ 90 billion (up 22%) with an annual surplus of US$ 44 to 45 billion.

Brazilian Central Bank estimates that the economy will expand 3.1% this year and 3.5% in 2007. Inflation will be in the range of 3.3% and in 2007 between 4.4 and 4.5%.

Another interesting data which was released this week shows that for the first time in ten years, Brazilian workers’ average real income during 2005 increased (4.5%), but still is 15% below ten years ago.

Lower inflation expectations and a higher minimum wage in 2005 played a crucial part in reversing the ten year tendency. Brazil is also one of the countries in the world with the worst income per capita distribution.

Brazilian employment figures were also encouraging. The percentage of people employed, above ten years of age, over total population in 2005 reached 57% which compares favorably with the 56.5% of 2004.

However in spite of the good 2005 showing, the best since 1996, the percentage of Brazilian population employed is still below the average of the first half of the nineties, indicate official Brazilian statistics.

Mercopress

Tags:

Ads

You May Also Like

Rio Intermezzo

Everyone had warned me about Rio. That’s why I had to go there. The ...

Brazil Again World’s Top Beef Exporter with Over US$ 3 Billion in Earnings

Brazil’s beef exports in 2005 should surpass US$ 3 billion, according to the president ...

Rotavirus Vaccine Should Save Life of 1,600 Children a Year, in Brazil

The Brazilian public health network will have a vaccine for rotavirus in March of ...

Brazil Industry Grows Again After Two Months of Decline

The Brazilian industry recorded a 1.8% growth in production in January, compared with December ...

Skilled Professional Robbers Are Keeping Me Away from Sí£o Paulo, Brazil

I never really liked Brazil's largest city – São Paulo – but now I ...

Brazil’s Lula Urges Israel and Palestine to Negotiate

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spent a good part of yesterday meeting ...

Indians Advocate Plurinational States Involving Brazil and Neighbors

Indigenous peoples from Brazil and neighboring countries would like to turn Latin American nations into ...

Brazil Gets Upgrade from Fitch. It’s BB All Over.

Fitch has upgraded the ratings for Brazil as follows: Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default ...

Pirated goods are a serious problem in Brazil

Brazil Charged with Leading a World Gang of Intellectual Property Predators

American trade and regulatory expert Lawrence Kogan, in a new University of Miami Inter-American ...

Brazil’s Budget, an Instrument of Inequality

A demonic bomb has been dropped into the lap of the Brazilian people: It ...