While Trump Makes Foes, China Makes Friends with Brazil and the World

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced Monday that Chinese investors would be allocating some R$ 27 billion (US$ 4.69 billion at the current exchange rate) to infrastructure and other development in the South American country. He made those remarks during his participation in the Brazil-China Business Forum in Beijing. The investments will also cover the areas of education and technology, it was explained.

According to the Palácio do Planalto, the working place of the Brazilian president, Lula’s recent meetings will contribute to further expand Chinese investments in Brazil. The new agreements provide for investments of US$ 1 billion in the production of renewable aviation fuel (SAF) from sugar cane, and the creation of a Research and Development Center (P&D) in the area of renewable energy.

In his closing speech at the forum, Lula emphasized that the bond between Brazil and China was not a “common relationship” but one of “two countries committed to solving the problem of impoverishment that has marked the lives of both” for a long time.

“It is remarkable that China has lifted, in 40 years, 800 million people out of poverty. Just as it is remarkable that Brazil, in just 10 years, has lifted 54 million people out of poverty in my country,” said Lula.

In Lula’s view, these facts are a consequence of the inclusion of a significant part of the population in the economy of these countries.

Brazil and China are “strategic partners and uncontrollable actors” in the current geopolitical context, amid the “resurgence of protectionist tendencies,” Lula also said.

“We are committed to reducing trade barriers, and we want more integration,” he further noted. Brazil and China still have the challenge of expanding the exchange of tourists, and to this end, new air connections between the two countries are planned.

The Brazilian president recalled that, in November last year, during a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, synergies were established between the development projects of the two countries. “Today, we are harvesting the first fruits of this work,” he stressed.

“The Virtual Center for Research and Development in Artificial Intelligence, the result of the partnership between Dataprev and Huawei, will be essential for the development of applications in agriculture, health, public safety, and mobility. Telebras’ partnership with Spacesail will expand the supply of low-orbit satellites and bring the Internet to more Brazilians, especially those living in more remote areas,” Lula also pointed out.

The president also mentioned eight agreements providing for the transfer of technology in the production of medicines, active pharmaceutical ingredients, vaccines, and medical equipment. In addition, he highlighted the cooperation between Senai Cimatec and Windey, which will result in the installation of a Research and Development Center for solar and wind energy and supply systems.

“China’s experience in the refining of critical minerals will contribute to the valorization of production in our territory, including the transfer of technology in the assembly cycles of electric batteries. We have abundant reserves of rare earths, lithium, niobium, cobalt, copper, graphite, uranium, and titanium,” said Lula.

Lula also spoke about the East-West Railway Corridor, which will “be a fundamental undertaking for Brazilian logistics and one of the most transformative for guaranteeing food security in the world.”

“Connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, through five integration routes, will facilitate trade and bring more development to the interior of the South American continent. The bioceanic routes will reduce the distance between Brazil and China by approximately 10,000 kilometers,” he added.

Technological advances will demand specialized professionals, Lula also recalled. “It is important to remember that people will not be competitive in the technological world, in the digital world, if they do not invest in education; if they do not invest in engineering, mathematics. The ideal for Brazil is not to be exporting [only] soybeans. It is to export intelligence and knowledge,” he underlined.

Hence, “we have to invest in education, as the Chinese did. Ask the Chinese how many millions of engineers they have trained in recent years. That’s the technological revolution [with] which the Chinese are presenting themselves to the world,” Lula insisted.

For those who claim that Brazil only exports primary goods and iron ore, Lula claimed that such sales, while positive, were the result of a lack of investment in education. “Brazil needs to thank God for exporting agribusiness, because people also need to know how much technology there is today in a gram of soybeans. And how much genetic engineering there is in a kilo of meat or of beef, pork, or in a sack of millet,” he argued.

“We have to export agribusiness and use this money that comes in to invest in education, so that we can be competitive with China in the production of electric cars, in the production of batteries, in the construction of artificial intelligence. No one is going to thank us Brazilians for that,” Lula concluded.

The trade flow between China and Brazil amounts to some $160 billion, as per data from the Brazilian trade agency ApexBrasil.

Against Trump Protectionism

Brazil and China released two joint statements Tuesday following a meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and other encounters in Beijing.

Overall, these documents addressed the ongoing war in Ukraine, a commitment to multilateralism and sustainability, a reform to the United Nations and its Security Council, economic cooperation, and a one-China stance.

The first statement called for dialogue between Moscow and Kyiv to end the war, while the second addresses multilateralism and the strengthening of sustainable actions to mitigate the harmful effects of climate change.

During his current visit to China, Lula has spoken repeatedly about the war in Ukraine and was heavily critical of Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip.

“Humanity is shrinking in the face of the atrocities committed in Gaza. There will be no peace without an independent and viable State of Palestine, living side by side with Israel. Only a reformed UN will be able to fulfill the ideals of peace, human rights, and social progress enshrined in 1945 by the Charter of San Francisco,” said Lula.

In their joint statement, Brazil and China welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposal this week to open peace negotiations while highlighting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s reaction.

“The governments of Brazil and China hope that direct dialogue between the parties will begin as soon as possible, the only way to put an end to the conflict,” the document mentions, positively assessing “the recent signs of willingness to engage in dialogue and expressing their expectation that the parties will be able to reach an understanding that will enable the start of fruitful negotiations.”

In the opinion of the Brazilian and Chinese governments, it is necessary to find a political solution to the crisis in Ukraine “at its roots, with a view to a lasting and fair peace agreement that is ultimately binding on all parties”.

The second declaration deals with the search for peace and stability in the Middle East, including the Gaza Recovery, Reconstruction and Development Plan, adopted by the League of Arab States in March 2025.

The two countries called on the international community to “promote the continued and effective implementation of the ceasefire agreement and to alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza”, in the search for a “definitive solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict.” They also reiterated their “support for the two-state solution, with an independent, sovereign and viable State of Palestine, living side by side with Israel, in peace and security, on the 1967 borders, including the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and with East Jerusalem as its capital.” The document also rejected “the use of terrorism and all acts of violence.”

Brazil and China also pledged to work together to defend multilateralism, safeguard international equity and justice, and reject unilateralism, protectionism, and the quest for hegemony. In this regard, they advocated a fairer and more equitable international system and the peaceful resolution of any disputes.

A reform to the United Nations Security Council was also included in the document, citing the need to make the UN more democratic and representative.

“The Chinese side attaches great importance to the influence and role that Brazil plays in regional and international affairs and understands and supports Brazil’s aspiration to play a greater role in the UN, including in its Security Council,” read the document.

In addition, it advocated comprehensive reform of the international financial architecture “to expand the influence of developing countries and their representation in international financial institutions.”

Brazil reiterated that it “firmly adheres to the principle of one China”, recognizing that “there is only one China in the world and that Taiwan is an inseparable part of Chinese territory.” The South American country also praised Beijing’s efforts “to achieve peaceful national reunification,” which was received with “great appreciation” by the Chinese side.

The document criticizes the so-called tariff and trade wars [as implemented by the United States after the inauguration of Donald Trump], stating that protectionism does not respond to current challenges.

In addition to advocating for the strengthening of cooperation between countries in the Global South, the declaration calls for all countries to pay more attention to issues related to human development, with a special view on reducing poverty and in favor of measures for education, health, and sustainable development.

It also highlights the partnerships between Brazil and China in initiatives and projects that cover the areas of financial cooperation, health, infrastructure (roads, railways, and ports), artificial intelligence, science, technology and innovation, human resources training, the environment, renewable energies and ecological transition, and the naval sector.

Brazil and China also jointly advocate global governance in cyberspace, as well as combating disinformation on the internet, to “promote a cyberspace that is open, secure, stable, accessible, peaceful and interoperable.”

Both countries also addressed cooperation between scientific research institutions and companies in the agricultural area to promote technological innovation, including biotechnology and social development.

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It seems the future never arrives in Brazil What Lies Ahead in Brazil? Brazil Has No Exemplary Past or Present. But What Lies Ahead for the Country? Europeans, US, developed country, developing country. Bolsonaro, future B. Michael Rubin For years, experts have debated what separates a developing country from a developed one. The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of a country is one simple way to measure its economic development. Another way to measure a country's progress is the extent of public education, e.g. how many citizens complete high school. A country's health may be measured by the effectiveness of its healthcare system, for example, life expectancy and infant mortality. With these measurement tools, it's easier to gauge the difference between a country like Brazil and one like the U.S. What's not easy to gauge is how these two countries developed so differently when they were both "discovered" at the same time. In 1492 and 1500 respectively, the U.S. and Brazil fell under the spell of white Europeans for the first time. While the British and Portuguese had the same modus operandi, namely, to exploit their discoveries for whatever they had to offer, not to mention extinguishing the native Americans already living there if they got in the way, the end result turned out significantly different in the U.S. than in Brazil. There are several theories on how/why the U.S. developed at a faster pace than Brazil. The theories originate via contrasting perspectives – from psychology to economics to geography. One of the most popular theories suggests the divergence between the two countries is linked to politics, i.e. the U.S. established a democratic government in 1776, while Brazil's democracy it could be said began only in earnest in the 1980s. This theory states that the Portuguese monarchy, as well as the 19th and 20th century oligarchies that followed it, had no motivation to invest in industrial development or education of the masses. Rather, Brazil was prized for its cheap and plentiful labor to mine the rich soil of its vast land. There is another theory based on collective psychology that says the first U.S. colonizers from England were workaholic Puritans, who avoided dancing and music in place of work and religious devotion. They labored six days a week then spent all of Sunday in church. Meanwhile, the white settlers in Brazil were unambitious criminals who had been freed from prison in Portugal in exchange for settling in Brazil. The Marxist interpretation of why Brazil lags behind the U.S. was best summarized by Eduardo Galeano, the Uruguayan writer, in 1970. Galeano said five hundred years ago the U.S. had the good fortune of bad fortune. What he meant was the natural riches of Brazil – gold, silver, and diamonds – made it ripe for exploitation by western Europe. Whereas in the U.S., lacking such riches, the thirteen colonies were economically insignificant to the British. Instead, U.S. industrialization had official encouragement from England, resulting in early diversification of its exports and rapid development of manufacturing. II Leaving this debate to the historians, let us turn our focus to the future. According to global projections by several economic strategists, what lies ahead for Brazil, the U.S., and the rest of the world is startling. Projections forecast that based on GDP growth, in 2050 the world's largest economy will be China, not the U.S. In third place will be India, and in fourth – Brazil. With the ascendency of three-fourths of the BRIC countries over the next decades, it will be important to reevaluate the terms developed and developing. In thirty years, it may no longer be necessary to accept the label characterized by Nelson Rodrigues's famous phrase "complexo de vira-lata," for Brazil's national inferiority complex. For Brazilians, this future scenario presents glistening hope. A country with stronger economic power would mean the government has greater wealth to expend on infrastructure, crime control, education, healthcare, etc. What many Brazilians are not cognizant of are the pitfalls of economic prosperity. While Brazilians today may be envious of their wealthier northern neighbors, there are some aspects of a developed country's profile that are not worth envying. For example, the U.S. today far exceeds Brazil in the number of suicides, prescription drug overdoses, and mass shootings. GDP growth and economic projections depend on multiple variables, chief among them the global economic situation and worldwide political stability. A war in the Middle East, for example, can affect oil production and have global ramifications. Political stability within a country is also essential to its economic health. Elected presidents play a crucial role in a country's progress, especially as presidents may differ radically in their worldview. The political paths of the U.S. and Brazil are parallel today. In both countries, we've seen a left-wing regime (Obama/PT) followed by a far-right populist one (Trump/Bolsonaro), surprising many outside observers, and in the U.S. contradicting every political pollster, all of whom predicted a Trump loss to Hillary Clinton in 2016. In Brazil, although Bolsonaro was elected by a clear majority, his triumph has created a powerful emotional polarization in the country similar to what is happening in the U.S. Families, friends, and colleagues have split in a love/hate relationship toward the current presidents in the U.S. and Brazil, leaving broken friendships and family ties. Both presidents face enormous challenges to keep their campaign promises. In Brazil, a sluggish economy just recovering from a recession shows no signs of robust GDP growth for at least the next two years. High unemployment continues to devastate the consumer confidence index in Brazil, and Bolsonaro is suffering under his campaign boasts that his Economy Minister, Paulo Guedes, has all the answers to fix Brazil's slump. Additionally, there is no end to the destruction caused by corruption in Brazil. Some experts believe corruption to be the main reason why Brazil has one of the world's largest wealth inequality gaps. Political corruption robs government coffers of desperately needed funds for education and infrastructure, in addition to creating an atmosphere that encourages everyday citizens to underreport income and engage in the shadow economy, thereby sidestepping tax collectors and regulators. "Why should I be honest about reporting my income when nobody else is? The politicians are only going to steal the tax money anyway," one Brazilian doctor told me. While Bolsonaro has promised a housecleaning of corrupt officials, this is a cry Brazilians have heard from every previous administration. In only the first half-year of his presidency, he has made several missteps, such as nominating one of his sons to be the new ambassador to the U.S., despite the congressman's lack of diplomatic credentials. A June poll found that 51 percent of Brazilians now lack confidence in Bolsonaro's leadership. Just this week, Brazil issued regulations that open a fast-track to deport foreigners who are dangerous or have violated the constitution. The rules published on July 26 by Justice Minister Sérgio Moro define a dangerous person as anyone associated with terrorism or organized crime, in addition to football fans with a violent history. Journalists noted that this new regulation had coincidental timing for an American journalist who has come under fire from Moro for publishing private communications of Moro's. Nevertheless, despite overselling his leadership skills, Bolsonaro has made some economic progress. With the help of congressional leader Rodrigo Maia, a bill is moving forward in congress for the restructuring of Brazil's generous pension system. Most Brazilians recognize the long-term value of such a change, which can save the government billions of dollars over the next decade. At merely the possibility of pension reform, outside investors have responded positively, and the São Paulo stock exchange has performed brilliantly, reaching an all-time high earlier this month. In efforts to boost the economy, Bolsonaro and Paulo Guedes have taken the short-term approach advocated by the Chicago school of economics championed by Milton Friedman, who claimed the key to boosting a slugging economy was to cut government spending. Unfortunately many economists, such as Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman, disagree with this approach. They believe the most effective way to revive a slow economy is exactly the opposite, to spend more money not less. They say the government should be investing money in education and infrastructure projects, which can help put people back to work. Bolsonaro/Guedes have also talked about reducing business bureaucracy and revising the absurdly complex Brazilian tax system, which inhibits foreign and domestic business investment. It remains to be seen whether Bolsonaro has the political acumen to tackle this Godzilla-sized issue. Should Bolsonaro find a way to reform the tax system, the pension system, and curb the most egregious villains of political bribery and kickbacks – a tall order – his efforts could indeed show strong economic results in time for the next election in 2022. Meanwhile, some prominent leaders have already lost faith in Bolsonaro's efforts. The veteran of political/economic affairs, Joaquim Levy, has parted company with the president after being appointed head of the government's powerful development bank, BNDES. Levy and Bolsonaro butted heads over an appointment Levy made of a former employee of Lula's. When neither man refused to back down, Levy resigned his position at BNDES. Many observers believe Bolsonaro's biggest misstep has been his short-term approach to fixing the economy by loosening the laws protecting the Amazon rainforest. He and Guedes believe that by opening up more of the Amazon to logging, mining, and farming, we will see immediate economic stimulation. On July 28, the lead article of The New York Times detailed the vastly increased deforestation in the Amazon taking place under Bolsonaro's leadership. Environmental experts argue that the economic benefits of increased logging and mining in the Amazon are microscopic compared to the long-term damage to the environment. After pressure from European leaders at the recent G-20 meeting to do more to protect the world's largest rainforest, Bolsonaro echoed a patriotic response demanding that no one has the right to an opinion about the Amazon except Brazilians. In retaliation to worldwide criticism, Bolsonaro threatened to follow Trump's example and pull out of the Paris climate accord; however, Bolsonaro was persuaded by cooler heads to retract his threat. To prove who was in control of Brazil's Amazon region, he appointed a federal police officer with strong ties to agribusiness as head of FUNAI, the country's indigenous agency. In a further insult to the world's environmental leaders, not to mention common sense, Paulo Guedes held a news conference on July 25 in Manaus, the largest city in the rainforest, where he declared that since the Amazon forest is known for being the "lungs" of the world, Brazil should charge other countries for all the oxygen the forest produces. Bolsonaro/Guedes also have promised to finish paving BR-319, a controversial highway that cuts through the Amazon forest, linking Manaus to the state of Rondônia and the rest of the country. Inaugurated in 1976, BR-319 was abandoned by federal governments in the 1980s and again in the 1990s as far too costly and risky. Environmentalists believe the highway's completion will seal a death knoll on many indigenous populations by vastly facilitating the growth of the logging and mining industries. Several dozen heavily armed miners dressed in military fatigues invaded a Wajãpi village recently in the state of Amapá near the border of French Guiana and fatally stabbed one of the community's leaders. While Brazil's environmental protection policies are desperately lacking these days, not all the news here was bad. On the opening day of the 2019 Pan America Games in Lima, Peru, Brazilian Luisa Baptista, swam, biked, and ran her way to the gold medal in the women's triathlon. The silver medal went to Vittoria Lopes, another Brazilian. B. Michael Rubin is an American writer living in Brazil.

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