Learning to share

Brazil has a history of going it alone. It happened with the world monopoly
on rubber production, for example. Despite a series of disasters due to the
dog-in-the manger policy, monopoly continues to be a government-blessed course
of action in the country.

In mid-January the Apple Company announced a loss
of $69 million in its latest three-month business period. What has that
got to do with Brazil? Plenty. Plenty because at the root of this
dismal result is Apple’s long standing decision to go it alone. Going
it alone means more gross profit; and, even if the tax bite is bigger,
the net profit is higher than is the case with the non-Apple computer
companies, a community of several hundred.

Brazil has an ancient and sorry story of “going it alone”. For many years, from the last century, Brazil had
been the only producer of rubber in the world. It set the prices and the terms. The money rolled in. Part of it was
mixed into the mortar used into the Teatro Amazonas in the jungle-capital of Manaus. British steamers sailing to
Pará (Belém) did not bother going to Rio or Santos. Or anywhere else in Brazil. It was Manaus or bust.

The poor rubbertappers, who owed their souls to the company store, and were paid by the kilo, began
adding rocks and other heavy debris to the rubber as the latex coagulated in big balls, in the smoke of open fires. It
was their way of getting even and a bit more of money from the big rubber barons (some of whom imported Italian
opera companies to sing “Aida” for them in the Teatro Amazonas). In the end, the workers’ sneaky revenge did
bankrupt their bloodsucking exploiters. At the same time, they torpedoed the Brazilian monopoly of rubber.

Brazilian books tell how the British “stole” 11,000 or 33,000 young plants who was counting?
and smuggled them to the Far East, where they gave birth, in the Federated Malay States and other Somerset
Maugham-tale areas under British control, to all Far East rubber plantations. The books never mentioned how rocks in the
raw rubber balls had broken and damaged plant machinery and enraged European industrialists.

In a book written more than 60 years ago, a German “investigative reporter” called Anton Zischka, told the
full story. His work, Wissenschaft bricht
Monopole
[Science Breaks Monopoly], relates how those
uncounted thousands of tender seedlings of Hevea brasiliensis

travelled to England under Equatorial sun, shaded by
tarpaulins, watered several times a day, and how most wilted and died. Only a dozen and half survived. They were taken to
the famous Kew Gardens, near London, where dedicated botanists babied and nurtured them, strengthened them,
and finally helped them become trees. It was the much more mature and hardier Kew Garden trees that spawned
the millions of rubber trees of today in Malaysia and the neighboring rubber countries.

In 1951 I wrote in Rio a melancholy article “The End of a Dream: Brazil Imports Rubber from the Orient.”
It was a lesson that should be taught in all classes of “Brazilian Problems” and, in depth, in courses of
Economics. Is anybody listening? Has anybody learned anything?

Back to Apple: In spite of its tremendous success, its 4-year lead over IBM, its many spectacular
inventions, Apple has had ups and downs in the last few years. And while it gripped jealously its monopoly, in the firm
belief it had a better product and that the market would recognize it, it lost ground, the economic analysts say,
because of: greed and self-centeredness.

While Apple kept everything for itself (mostly the profit), IBM got into a community of computer
gear manufacturers, licensed its patents to competitors who introduced their own improvements. IBM used
Intel microprocessors in large scale and worked with Microsoft (which produced its first “Disk Operating
System” (DOS), and other software, then “Windows” a fabulous panoply of programs. Today Microsoft has eclipsed
most US companies and, following IBM’s example, has licensed scores of other makers to make DOS for
many computer-makers, and much more in the wide area of software.

In spite of the debacle of its Rubber Empire, Brazil still keeps to the misguided notion that monopoly is
more profitable. Yes, it is, in the short run, but Brazil is not in business for 5, 10 or 20 years. However, monopoly
has been a government-blessed policy in Brazil:

The teletypewriter, invented before First World War I, and widely used worldwide, was reserved
exclusively in Brazil for the armed services. It was only after the end of World War II that teletypewriting (both
Telex and Teletype are registered trade marks) became generally available in the country, provided by a single operator,
the Post Office. When I arrived in Washington in 1955 news from Brazil arrived at the Embassy by the
dash-and-dot Morse code…

Silkscreen printing, an art of ancient Chinese origin, was introduced in Brazil under the name Planograf by
a

company that managed to monopolize its [public domain] technique for many years, and made a mint.

By opening the country to several automakers simultaneously, President Juscelino Kubitschek tripped
a business-military cabal whose intention was to exploit the automotive industry as a monopoly.

As soon as the first small personal computers (as against the large mainframe computers sold by IBM and
other US makers) arrived, their manufacture in Brazil became “reserved to National industry” actually a
monopoly or a cartel under the flimsy excuse of
protecting the [then nonexistent] Brazilian PC industry. The result
was the manufacture of a few clunkers that were already obsolete when marketed. They were put together with
parts mostly smuggled into the country. There was no genuine computer industry, only pirated copies of hardware
and software.

Wrote a “cyber wag”: “In the end, Brazil managed the marvel of getting 30 years behind the times in 15
years of PC marketing.” Since contraband has been a flourishing national industry for many years over the
porous Brazilian borders, the “market reservation” umbrella just protected the smugglers at many levels. Many people
got rich through this gimmick.

Knowledgeable people who had legitimate reasons to travel frequently between the US and Brazil
were approached by “Market Reservation” agents and enticed to haul to Brazil all sorts of entire computing units
(CPU, keyboard, monitor, printer, cables, software). In exchange for the courtesy, the “carrier pigeons” were given
tickets, per diem, expenses, and honoraria, paid in cash when the mules contacted trusted Custom officers at
Galeão, Guarulhos and other Brazilian airports. When the “informal” computer market got saturated, plain-paper
fax machines became the main item of trade.

The EBCT, the Brazilian Post Office façade-corporation, tried to horn into the use of fax in Brazil, taking
it away from another Brazilian government provider, Telebrás. But the “Brazilian ATT” held firm and the EBCT
had to retreat.

Right now, Brazilians interested in getting onto the Internet have only one gate to deal with: Embratel,
the satellite company. Without any competition, setting its own rules and rates, Embratel has no interest in
setting regional “hubs” to save users the real time on long distance telephone lines, some of which are hardly
reliable. Embratel may charge whatever it pleases and, in theory, may refuse connections in the case of “undesirables”.

Or, as they say in Brazil “Os cães ladram e a caravana passa” [The dogs bark and the caravan goes on].

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It seems the future never arrives in Brazil What Lies Ahead in Brazil? Brazil Has No Exemplary Past or Present. But What Lies Ahead for the Country? Europeans, US, developed country, developing country. Bolsonaro, future B. Michael Rubin For years, experts have debated what separates a developing country from a developed one. The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of a country is one simple way to measure its economic development. Another way to measure a country's progress is the extent of public education, e.g. how many citizens complete high school. A country's health may be measured by the effectiveness of its healthcare system, for example, life expectancy and infant mortality. With these measurement tools, it's easier to gauge the difference between a country like Brazil and one like the U.S. What's not easy to gauge is how these two countries developed so differently when they were both "discovered" at the same time. In 1492 and 1500 respectively, the U.S. and Brazil fell under the spell of white Europeans for the first time. While the British and Portuguese had the same modus operandi, namely, to exploit their discoveries for whatever they had to offer, not to mention extinguishing the native Americans already living there if they got in the way, the end result turned out significantly different in the U.S. than in Brazil. There are several theories on how/why the U.S. developed at a faster pace than Brazil. The theories originate via contrasting perspectives – from psychology to economics to geography. One of the most popular theories suggests the divergence between the two countries is linked to politics, i.e. the U.S. established a democratic government in 1776, while Brazil's democracy it could be said began only in earnest in the 1980s. This theory states that the Portuguese monarchy, as well as the 19th and 20th century oligarchies that followed it, had no motivation to invest in industrial development or education of the masses. Rather, Brazil was prized for its cheap and plentiful labor to mine the rich soil of its vast land. There is another theory based on collective psychology that says the first U.S. colonizers from England were workaholic Puritans, who avoided dancing and music in place of work and religious devotion. They labored six days a week then spent all of Sunday in church. Meanwhile, the white settlers in Brazil were unambitious criminals who had been freed from prison in Portugal in exchange for settling in Brazil. The Marxist interpretation of why Brazil lags behind the U.S. was best summarized by Eduardo Galeano, the Uruguayan writer, in 1970. Galeano said five hundred years ago the U.S. had the good fortune of bad fortune. What he meant was the natural riches of Brazil – gold, silver, and diamonds – made it ripe for exploitation by western Europe. Whereas in the U.S., lacking such riches, the thirteen colonies were economically insignificant to the British. Instead, U.S. industrialization had official encouragement from England, resulting in early diversification of its exports and rapid development of manufacturing. II Leaving this debate to the historians, let us turn our focus to the future. According to global projections by several economic strategists, what lies ahead for Brazil, the U.S., and the rest of the world is startling. Projections forecast that based on GDP growth, in 2050 the world's largest economy will be China, not the U.S. In third place will be India, and in fourth – Brazil. With the ascendency of three-fourths of the BRIC countries over the next decades, it will be important to reevaluate the terms developed and developing. In thirty years, it may no longer be necessary to accept the label characterized by Nelson Rodrigues's famous phrase "complexo de vira-lata," for Brazil's national inferiority complex. For Brazilians, this future scenario presents glistening hope. A country with stronger economic power would mean the government has greater wealth to expend on infrastructure, crime control, education, healthcare, etc. What many Brazilians are not cognizant of are the pitfalls of economic prosperity. While Brazilians today may be envious of their wealthier northern neighbors, there are some aspects of a developed country's profile that are not worth envying. For example, the U.S. today far exceeds Brazil in the number of suicides, prescription drug overdoses, and mass shootings. GDP growth and economic projections depend on multiple variables, chief among them the global economic situation and worldwide political stability. A war in the Middle East, for example, can affect oil production and have global ramifications. Political stability within a country is also essential to its economic health. Elected presidents play a crucial role in a country's progress, especially as presidents may differ radically in their worldview. The political paths of the U.S. and Brazil are parallel today. In both countries, we've seen a left-wing regime (Obama/PT) followed by a far-right populist one (Trump/Bolsonaro), surprising many outside observers, and in the U.S. contradicting every political pollster, all of whom predicted a Trump loss to Hillary Clinton in 2016. In Brazil, although Bolsonaro was elected by a clear majority, his triumph has created a powerful emotional polarization in the country similar to what is happening in the U.S. Families, friends, and colleagues have split in a love/hate relationship toward the current presidents in the U.S. and Brazil, leaving broken friendships and family ties. Both presidents face enormous challenges to keep their campaign promises. In Brazil, a sluggish economy just recovering from a recession shows no signs of robust GDP growth for at least the next two years. High unemployment continues to devastate the consumer confidence index in Brazil, and Bolsonaro is suffering under his campaign boasts that his Economy Minister, Paulo Guedes, has all the answers to fix Brazil's slump. Additionally, there is no end to the destruction caused by corruption in Brazil. Some experts believe corruption to be the main reason why Brazil has one of the world's largest wealth inequality gaps. Political corruption robs government coffers of desperately needed funds for education and infrastructure, in addition to creating an atmosphere that encourages everyday citizens to underreport income and engage in the shadow economy, thereby sidestepping tax collectors and regulators. "Why should I be honest about reporting my income when nobody else is? The politicians are only going to steal the tax money anyway," one Brazilian doctor told me. While Bolsonaro has promised a housecleaning of corrupt officials, this is a cry Brazilians have heard from every previous administration. In only the first half-year of his presidency, he has made several missteps, such as nominating one of his sons to be the new ambassador to the U.S., despite the congressman's lack of diplomatic credentials. A June poll found that 51 percent of Brazilians now lack confidence in Bolsonaro's leadership. Just this week, Brazil issued regulations that open a fast-track to deport foreigners who are dangerous or have violated the constitution. The rules published on July 26 by Justice Minister Sérgio Moro define a dangerous person as anyone associated with terrorism or organized crime, in addition to football fans with a violent history. Journalists noted that this new regulation had coincidental timing for an American journalist who has come under fire from Moro for publishing private communications of Moro's. Nevertheless, despite overselling his leadership skills, Bolsonaro has made some economic progress. With the help of congressional leader Rodrigo Maia, a bill is moving forward in congress for the restructuring of Brazil's generous pension system. Most Brazilians recognize the long-term value of such a change, which can save the government billions of dollars over the next decade. At merely the possibility of pension reform, outside investors have responded positively, and the São Paulo stock exchange has performed brilliantly, reaching an all-time high earlier this month. In efforts to boost the economy, Bolsonaro and Paulo Guedes have taken the short-term approach advocated by the Chicago school of economics championed by Milton Friedman, who claimed the key to boosting a slugging economy was to cut government spending. Unfortunately many economists, such as Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman, disagree with this approach. They believe the most effective way to revive a slow economy is exactly the opposite, to spend more money not less. They say the government should be investing money in education and infrastructure projects, which can help put people back to work. Bolsonaro/Guedes have also talked about reducing business bureaucracy and revising the absurdly complex Brazilian tax system, which inhibits foreign and domestic business investment. It remains to be seen whether Bolsonaro has the political acumen to tackle this Godzilla-sized issue. Should Bolsonaro find a way to reform the tax system, the pension system, and curb the most egregious villains of political bribery and kickbacks – a tall order – his efforts could indeed show strong economic results in time for the next election in 2022. Meanwhile, some prominent leaders have already lost faith in Bolsonaro's efforts. The veteran of political/economic affairs, Joaquim Levy, has parted company with the president after being appointed head of the government's powerful development bank, BNDES. Levy and Bolsonaro butted heads over an appointment Levy made of a former employee of Lula's. When neither man refused to back down, Levy resigned his position at BNDES. Many observers believe Bolsonaro's biggest misstep has been his short-term approach to fixing the economy by loosening the laws protecting the Amazon rainforest. He and Guedes believe that by opening up more of the Amazon to logging, mining, and farming, we will see immediate economic stimulation. On July 28, the lead article of The New York Times detailed the vastly increased deforestation in the Amazon taking place under Bolsonaro's leadership. Environmental experts argue that the economic benefits of increased logging and mining in the Amazon are microscopic compared to the long-term damage to the environment. After pressure from European leaders at the recent G-20 meeting to do more to protect the world's largest rainforest, Bolsonaro echoed a patriotic response demanding that no one has the right to an opinion about the Amazon except Brazilians. In retaliation to worldwide criticism, Bolsonaro threatened to follow Trump's example and pull out of the Paris climate accord; however, Bolsonaro was persuaded by cooler heads to retract his threat. To prove who was in control of Brazil's Amazon region, he appointed a federal police officer with strong ties to agribusiness as head of FUNAI, the country's indigenous agency. In a further insult to the world's environmental leaders, not to mention common sense, Paulo Guedes held a news conference on July 25 in Manaus, the largest city in the rainforest, where he declared that since the Amazon forest is known for being the "lungs" of the world, Brazil should charge other countries for all the oxygen the forest produces. Bolsonaro/Guedes also have promised to finish paving BR-319, a controversial highway that cuts through the Amazon forest, linking Manaus to the state of Rondônia and the rest of the country. Inaugurated in 1976, BR-319 was abandoned by federal governments in the 1980s and again in the 1990s as far too costly and risky. Environmentalists believe the highway's completion will seal a death knoll on many indigenous populations by vastly facilitating the growth of the logging and mining industries. Several dozen heavily armed miners dressed in military fatigues invaded a Wajãpi village recently in the state of Amapá near the border of French Guiana and fatally stabbed one of the community's leaders. While Brazil's environmental protection policies are desperately lacking these days, not all the news here was bad. On the opening day of the 2019 Pan America Games in Lima, Peru, Brazilian Luisa Baptista, swam, biked, and ran her way to the gold medal in the women's triathlon. The silver medal went to Vittoria Lopes, another Brazilian. B. Michael Rubin is an American writer living in Brazil.

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