Global geopolitics has never been so volatile. As armed conflicts reignite tensions among major powers and disrupt global supply chains, the world is searching for new sources of strategic resources capable of ensuring economic security and industrial stability.
In this scenario of uncertainty, Brazil emerges with unprecedented relevance — not only as a traditional supplier of agricultural commodities, but also as the holder of mineral wealth essential to the economy of the future.
Its privileged geographic position and historical diplomatic neutrality place the country at an advantage in a market that increasingly prioritizes supply security and reliable partners.
The war in Ukraine and the persistent tensions in the Middle East have caused significant disruptions in the global energy and raw materials markets. According to a 2024 World Bank report, commodity prices registered volatility exceeding 40% in some sectors, while demand for strategic minerals grew exponentially.
Brazil, historically dependent on exports of soybeans, coffee, and iron ore — which account for approximately 65% of the total value of national exports — finds in this context a concrete opportunity for economic diversification and international repositioning.
Brazil’s competitive edge, however, goes beyond conventional commodities. The country holds one of the world’s largest rare earth reserves, second only to China in estimated volume, according to data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Despite this potential, Brazil still plays only a modest role in the global chain of extraction and refining of these minerals.
Rare earths refer to a group of chemical elements essential for high-value-added technologies. They are used in the production of batteries, electric vehicles, wind turbines, semiconductors, smartphones, medical equipment, and advanced military systems.
In a world increasingly driven by the energy transition and technological competition among global powers, these minerals have become strategic assets comparable to oil in the twentieth century.
Currently, China accounts for around 70% of global production and dominates much of the refining and processing capacity, raising concerns among Western countries about the geopolitical dependence created over recent decades.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that demand for rare earths could grow by as much as 400% by 2040, driven by the expansion of renewable energy and the technology industry.
In this context, Brazil has the potential to become a strategic partner in complex industrial supply chains and to occupy a relevant position in the new green economy.
However, turning potential into reality requires overcoming profound challenges. The first is regulatory: the country still lacks a modern and efficient legal framework for the exploitation of strategic minerals.
The second is technological, since the extraction and, above all, the refining of rare earths require sophisticated industrial expertise and billions in investments in research, innovation, and infrastructure.
The third challenge is environmental. The mining of these minerals can generate toxic waste and significant environmental impacts, demanding technical rigor, oversight, and a commitment to sustainability — a challenge Brazil cannot afford to ignore.
The greatest obstacle, however, remains the absence of a long-term national project. For the country to benefit from this historic moment, the exploitation of strategic resources must be treated as a state policy rather than a government initiative subject to ideological disputes and electoral changes.
Structural competitiveness depends on legal certainty, regulatory predictability, and administrative continuity, allowing investors to plan decades ahead.
Logistics infrastructure also requires urgent modernization. Congested ports, insufficient railways, and transportation bottlenecks reduce Brazil’s competitiveness even during favorable periods in the international market.
According to the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), Brazilian logistics costs can be up to 60% higher than those of direct competitors, compromising efficiency and profitability.
Brazil stands at a historic crossroads. It can continue as a passive supplier of low-value-added commodities, or seize the opportunity to integrate strategic technological supply chains and capture industrial value through rare earths.
In a world that increasingly transforms natural resources into instruments of economic power and geopolitical influence, Brazil’s mineral wealth may represent either just another extractive cycle or the beginning of a genuine national project for technological sovereignty.
Renato Ewerton de Melo is a lawyer specialized in corporate law.
