Customers at a supermarket on Avenida Rua Bolivar in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, are positively surprised at the price changes they’ve been experiencing over the past few weeks, as they are now paying significantly less for coffee and meat, for example.
“Finally, some good news in these difficult times,” says shopper Julienne Freitas.
Her experience is not anecdotal but rather echoed by a recent survey from Brazil’s Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socio-Economic Studies (DIEESE) — a research institute affiliated with trade unions that produces scientific studies.
Compiled with the collaboration of government agency CONAB, the survey found that food prices fell in 24 of Brazil’s 27 regional state capitals in the month of August, compared with July, with basics such as tomatoes, rice, meat and coffee all becoming cheaper.
Tariffs and agricultural cycles
Part of the decline comes from natural cycles typical for agriculture, says Leandro Dias from the agricultural commodities trading platform AgroDeri in São Paulo, Brazil.
“Coffee had a strong harvest, which increased supply and pushed down prices. With beef, the livestock cycle is in a phase with plenty of cattle ready for fattening, which the domestic market is now feeling,” he said.
But US tariffs on Brazilian imports are also playing a role, he added, referring to US President Donald Trump’s 50% tariff rate on most goods earlier this year. Such excessive tariffs would generally cause “inflation at home and slow competitiveness abroad,” said Dias.
As a result, US consumers would face rising prices on foods targeted by Washington’s trade measures, while prices for those same goods were falling in producing countries.
Economist Douglas Eustaquio of Grupo Boticario — one of the largest cosmetics companies in Brazil — argues that tariffs are reshaping supply and demand in Brazil.
Products that were partly or entirely intended for the US market, he said, are now staying in Brazil and “supplying the domestic market,” noting that beef prices are adjusting more slowly but are also trending downward currently.
Political fallout over Bolsonaro trial
Donald Trump’s tariffs imposed on Brazil are linked to the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced by Brazil’s Supreme Court to 27 years in prison for attempting a coup. Washington imposed punitive tariffs in response to the trial, citing concerns over the suppression of opposition and free expression.
Brazil’s government, however, insists its judiciary is independent. The country’s leftist president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has criticized the tariffs as unfair, pointing out that the US already runs a trade surplus with Brazil.
Between January and July 2025, Brazilian exports to the US totaled US$ 23.7 billion, the highest ever for that period. At the same time, imports climbed 12.6% to $26 billion, pushing the US trade surplus with Brazil to $2.3 billion.
Economic risks from falling prices
A similar slump in food prices is currently unfolding in Mexico, where tomatoes, for example, have become significantly cheaper recently.
“In the region, there is high production, and producers in the north of the country are selling to central [Mexican] states instead of exporting to the United States, so the price is falling,” Javier Reyes Escamilla, president of the Livestock Association of the Mid-North Region of the State of Mexico, told multiplatform news group Milenio.
US, Mexico agree on 90-day reprieve ahead of tariff deadline
But while consumers in producing countries are benefiting in the short term, the outlook may not be so bright in the longer run, says Brazilian economist Dirlene Silva.
“If producers lose access to an important market like the American one, they no longer have an incentive to invest. That means less technology, lower productivity, and even losses in quality,” she said.
Eventually, production could shrink, she warned, sending prices back up — this time to the detriment of local consumers in Brazil and beyond.
Tobias Käufer is a Latin-America based journalist
https://x.com/KaeuferTobias
DW
